Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
